000
WTPZ24 KNHC 211442
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN... AND A TROPICAL
STORM
WATCH FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY... AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN