000
WTPZ24 KNHC 192031
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.3N 140.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 10.9N 141.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.7N 143.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.6N 144.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.7N 146.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 147.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 138.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN