000
WTPZ24 KNHC 190841
TCMEP4

HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
0900 UTC MON OCT 19 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.4W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.4W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 136.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 10.3N 137.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.8N 139.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.4N 141.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.3N 142.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 144.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 136.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN