000
WTPZ24 KNHC 181434
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 133.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE  90SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 133.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 132.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z  9.7N 134.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  90SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.2N 136.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.8N 138.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.6N 139.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 142.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 15.5N 143.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 144.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N 133.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN