000
WTPZ24 KNHC 062044
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 117.4W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 117.4W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 117.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH