000
WTPZ24 KNHC 052042
TCMEP4

HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 117.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 117.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 117.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.2N 117.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.5N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG