000
WTPZ24 KNHC 051445
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.4N 117.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.2N 116.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.2N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.7N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 117.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN