000
WTPZ24 KNHC 050841
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 116.7W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 116.7W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 117.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.6N 117.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.9N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 30.6N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 116.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART