000
WTPZ24 KNHC 040848
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 112.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 114.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.3N 117.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 112.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART