000
WTPZ24 KNHC 021444
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN