000
WTPZ24 KNHC 012032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN