000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060238
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO
* WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.0N 117.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 112.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN