000
WTPZ24 KNHC 042056
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N 113.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.8N 114.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.4N 117.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.1N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE