000
WTPZ24 KNHC 031441
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 108.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 108.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.9N 110.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 111.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE