000
WTPZ24 KNHC 030855
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SANTA FE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE
NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 107.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 107.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 25.1N 115.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 107.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART