000
WTPZ24 KNHC 022046
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 210SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE