000
WTPZ24 KNHC 041435
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 136.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 136.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 139.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 141.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 144.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 157.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 162.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 136.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG