000
WTPZ24 KNHC 040557
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0600 UTC MON AUG 04 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.2W AT 04/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.2W AT 04/0600Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 134.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 135.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE