000
WTPZ24 KNHC 302039
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE.
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH