000
WTPZ24 KNHC 310847
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.8W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.8W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 114.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.1N 116.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 114.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA