000
WTPZ24 KNHC 072031
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.0W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.0W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 119.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.8N 122.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.2N 127.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.3N 130.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH