000
WTPZ24 KNHC 212045
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
2100 UTC THU JUL 21 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING
CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  932 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.3N 110.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 115.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 24.8N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 107.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN