000
WTPZ24 KNHC 212033
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
2100 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 103.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 103.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 102.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.5N 104.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 11.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.9N 113.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 103.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN