000
WTPZ24 KNHC 211453
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
1500 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 102.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 102.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 102.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.7N 104.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 11.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.1N 108.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 102.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN