000
WTPZ24 KNHC 132033
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 108.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 108.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 108.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.8N 112.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 108.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN