000
WTPZ24 KNHC 130845
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
0900 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009
 
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...INCLUDING
CABO SAN LUCAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  40SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 25NE  75SE 100SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT... 25NE  75SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 30NE  75SE  75SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.4N 111.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  75SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  75SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 109.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN