000
WTPZ24 KNHC 130229
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
0300 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.  A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  80SE  50SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 30NE  80SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 110.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.1N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N 112.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 109.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA