000
WTPZ24 KNHC 122055
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
2100 UTC MON OCT 12 2009
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.  A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.1W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE  90SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.1W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.8N 110.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 110SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  75SE  50SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN