000
WTPZ24 KNHC 121453
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
1500 UTC MON OCT 12 2009
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  60SE  45SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE  90SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 109.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 109.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.9N 110.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 109.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN