000
WTPZ24 KNHC 120851
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
0900 UTC MON OCT 12 2009
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PATRICIA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
  
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  60SE  45SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 23.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 108.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN