000
WTPZ24 KNHC 120235
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2009

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PATRICIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH