000
WTPZ24 KNHC 151433
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 129.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 129.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 129.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.5N 130.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.9N 132.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.3N 134.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.6N 136.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.0N 142.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 129.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN