000
WTPZ24 KNHC 150247
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.7N 131.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.1N 133.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.6N 135.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 12.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 128.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN