000
WTPZ24 KNHC 130242
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 123.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 123.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 10.2N 124.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 10.4N 126.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 10.6N 129.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 131.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.7N 135.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 12.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 12.5N 145.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 123.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN