000
WTPZ24 KNHC 121459
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 121.0W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  45SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 121.0W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 120.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 10.5N 122.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 10.7N 125.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 10.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.2N 129.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.0N 134.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 13.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 13.5N 142.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 121.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN