000
WTPZ24 KNHC 112035
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  45SW  55NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 117.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA