000
WTPZ24 KNHC 111434
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 116.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 116.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 116.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 116.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA