000
WTPZ24 KNHC 110238
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 115.1W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 115.1W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 114.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 10.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 11.4N 121.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 13.0N 137.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 115.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN