000
WTPZ23 KNHC 160837
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
0900 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   5SE   5SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 132.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 135.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.7N 139.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N 142.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 146.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 149.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.6N 153.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.9N 160.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 166.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 133.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI