665 
WTPZ23 KNHC 152032
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 129.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 139.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 156.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 164.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 130.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART