579 
WTPZ23 KNHC 151446
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
1500 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 128.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 131.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 134.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 137.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 140.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N 144.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.1N 147.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 19.1N 154.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 161.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART