000
WTPZ23 KNHC 150234
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
0300 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 126.0W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 126.0W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.6N 128.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 131.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 134.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 137.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 140.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 143.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 150.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 157.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 126.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN