000
WTPZ23 KNHC 141510
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
1500 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 123.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 123.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 122.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.0N 125.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.7N 128.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 133.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 137.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 140.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 147.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 155.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 123.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART