000
WTPZ23 KNHC 122033
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 113.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 113.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 113.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.9N 115.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.6N 121.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   5SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   5SE   5SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.6N 130.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 136.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 143.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 113.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG