000
WTPZ23 KNHC 121432
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 111.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 114.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 13.3N 119.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   5SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.8N 122.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 128.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 135.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 141.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 112.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG