000
WTPZ23 KNHC 120835
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
0900 UTC WED JUL 12 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.6W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.6W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 109.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.7N 115.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.9N 118.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.4N 121.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.1N 124.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.7N 127.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 133.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 110.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN