000
WTPZ23 KNHC 200840
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022
0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  94.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  94.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  93.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.7N  95.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.8N  97.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.1N  99.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.6N 101.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  94.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH