000
WTPZ23 KNHC 181435
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE CHANGES OF DIRECT WIND IMPACTS ARE
DECREASING.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  89.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N  90.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N  91.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.1N  93.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N  95.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N  97.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N  99.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N  90.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN