000
WTPZ23 KNHC 111437
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  98.9W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  98.9W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  98.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N  98.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI