000
WTPZ23 KNHC 160844
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.9W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.9W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS